Chunding Li

College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University

The Central Asian region is in the core area of the Eurasian continent and has been a must pass area of the "Silk Road" since ancient times. China and Central Asia have good geopolitical and cultural advantages and a long historical tradition in conducting agricultural product economic and trade cooperation, and the prospects are very broad. Since the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2001, bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation has been continuously expanding.   The agricultural cooperation between China and Central Asia is an important part of China's agricultural "the Belt and Road" construction, which has received extensive attention from domestic experts and scholars.

We started with the analysis of the main agricultural industries, advantageous agricultural products, agricultural trade growth and agricultural trade structure of the five Central Asian countries, and then sorted out the platform and advantages of agricultural product development between China and the five Central Asian countries from the perspectives of geographical location, the "the Belt and Road" initiative, the SCO and the Central Asia Line of China Europe Banlieh, and preliminarily measured the potential of bilateral agricultural trade cooperation through agricultural trade indicators. On this basis, we quantitatively simulate the trade potential of agricultural products between China and the five Central Asian countries. From the simulation analysis of bilateral agricultural trade in 2030, it can be seen that over time, the economic development of China and the five Central Asian countries has been excellent, possessing the ability and potential for individual development, and having an economic background that can support mutual cooperation; From the simulation analysis of the impact of bilateral tariff barrier reduction, it can be seen that the positive macroeconomic effect of tariff reduction on the five Central Asian countries is greater than that of China, while the industrial economic effect of tariff reduction on China is also relatively small; From the simulation analysis of the impact of bilateral non-tariff barrier reduction, it can be seen that non-tariff reduction will bring significant positive macroeconomic and industrial economic effects to the five Central Asian countries, but the positive economic impact on China is relatively small. Moreover, as the rate of non-tariff reduction increases, China's macroeconomic and industrial economic effects increase, but their economic effects are still relatively small compared to the five Central Asian countries.

In order to deepen the agricultural product economic and trade cooperation between China and the five Central Asian countries, we propose measures and suggestions to promote market opening, strengthen agricultural economic and trade cooperation, promote the construction of the Central Asian Line between China and Europe, promote mutual recognition of inspection and quarantine and technical standards, promote the upgrading of the cooperation system, and promote the construction of the Central Asian Agricultural Opening up Cooperation Pilot Zone.